MODEL STATUS
21 September controlled demonstration — retained for evidence, not presented as today’s Milford base case.Current 5-year-plan / business-plan Monte Carlo work belongs in the current controlled-model lane and requires Nigel’s promotion gate before replacing this reference.
Choose a Milford development decision. Then stress it. The controlled physical what-if is put against the same 10,000 market futures, so Victor can see the choice and the uncertainty together — not just one forecast.
DEVELOPMENT DECISION
NIGE · AUTOMATED READOUT
Running the controlled futures…
Distribution · poor / middle / good
What drove this run
Why this is a real Monte Carlo demonstration
Method
Five uncertain drivers are sampled independently from triangular distributions. Every draw is passed through the quadratic surface fitted to 20 full workbook recalculations of the Milford consolidated model.
Price 0.85–1.10 · Build 0.95–1.35 · Absorption 0.70–1.25 · Deposit 0.20–0.30 · Resort ADR 0.85–1.10.
Control
Control: the physical choices above are controlled 21 Sep what-if results. The same market draws are used for every option. The +32 and −10% size cases stress their recorded incremental GDV/build components with price and build-cost draws; the density/mix case carries its recorded Owner delta until a full density response surface is fitted. This demonstration runs on controlled Milford data from 21 Sep 2026.